It has been all about fundamentals for oil markets of late.
Production cuts from Opec have tightened supply, coinciding with signs of recovering demand from developed nations, helping Brent crude establish itself over $55 a barrel since mid-September. It’s quite a change from the summer, when the international marker had trouble holding $50 between May and late July.
The outlook for oil could, however, be about to get a little more complicated, at least according to analysis from Morgan Stanley.
According to the US bank, the tighter conditions mean the likely return of a factor that has been absent from an oversupplied market: premiums for geopolitical risk.
“Recently, two major sources of supply risk have lifted prices,” says Martijn Rats, global oil strategist.
“Tension has been building in Iraq, following the recent referendum on Kurdish independence [and] uncertainty over Iran’s production over the medium-term has grown, following President Trump’s decision not to certify Iran’s compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.”
The impact looks relatively modest with Morgan Stanley calculating that a “$1-to-$2 risk premium is currently priced in” to Brent.
But Mr Rats thinks the number of other “hotspots” around the world “is sufficiently large to see a geopolitical risk premium becoming a source of continuing price support once again”.
It could be that oil traders will need to keep a closer watch on the news.
michael.hunter@ft.com
http://ift.tt/2y1oK4O
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar