Gold has shown signs of fading with the performance of the precious metal set for a flat third quarter after rising over 20 per cent during the first half of the year.
Fears that boosted gold in the wake of the UK vote for Brexit in June have failed to materialise, according to Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis.
“Initially the market got a bit excited about Brexit and thought the doom and gloom was going to take place,” he said. “Because the situation in the UK along with Europe didn’t deteriorate substantially the market thinks the US is now less stressed about raising rates.”
After climbing to this year’s peak of $1,375.5 a troy ounce in early July, gold has been confined to a narrow trading range, registering a low of $1,302 in September. The precious metal was trading at a one-week low of $1,321 on Wednesday, little changed since the end of June.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noting that gold has been in a tight range, said the driver behind a return to the $1,320 an ounce range had been stronger US consumer confidence and a recovery in the US dollar.
Gold investors are considering the likelihood of rising short-dated interest rates in the US, which has made assets that provide a yield more attractive. That has also strengthened the dollar, which is bad for gold since it is bought and sold in the reserve currency.
The Fed is likely to be seen raising the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points at each of the December, June 2017 and December 2017 meetings, according to analysts at ABN Amro. The bank forecasts gold will probably move in a trading range between $1,300 to $1,350 in the coming quarters.
Flows into gold-backed exchange traded funds, which drove gold’s rally in the first half of the year, have also remained flat in third quarter. Only about 30 tonnes of gold have been added, compared with180 tonnes in February, according to Mr Dahdah.
The consolidation in the gold price spurred analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman to consider whether the commodity was “rolling over” in research published on Wednesday. Analysts said gold was acting like another commodity rather than a haven asset and noted how its correlation with the S&P 500 on a rolling 60-day basis had turned positive for the first time since the start of this year.
Demand for the metal in China, the largest consumer, also showed signs of weakening during August. China imported 50.5 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong last month, a 45 per cent drop from July and the lowest level since January, according to analysts at Commerzbank.
“It would appear that the higher gold prices have prompted Chinese buyers to exercise restraint,” they said. “After all, the average gold price in August was at its highest level in nearly three years.”
Gold is seen by some analysts as receiving support from a victory by Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump in November. Gold prices eased after the first presidential debate on Tuesday as financial markets interpreted it as a win for Hillary Clinton.
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