More people are taking to the road but the vehicles are increasingly unlikely to to be fuelled by oil © EPA
Some of the world’s top oil forecasters are starting to map out scenarios for what is billed as one of the biggest threats to future demand: China and India eyeing a ban of petrol and diesel cars.
The two countries, which comprise more than a third of the world’s population, were long seen as the main drivers of growing oil consumption as more people take to the road in their fast-developing economies.
In the past month, however, Chinese officials have floated the possibility of phasing out the production and sale of fossil-fuelled vehicles, following the UK and France which have said they aim to ban diesel and petrol cars by 2040.
India indicated this year it wanted all cars to be powered by electricity by 2030.
While doubts remain about the feasibility of such timelines, Pira Energy and Wood Mackenzie, the consultancies that advise some of the biggest energy companies and investors, have flagged in reports the rising risk to oil consumption.
Pira, a unit of S&P Global, said that while they remain “sceptical” fossil fuel cars will be phased out in the timescales under discussion, they can paint a realistic path where global oil demand peaks much sooner if China and India push towards a fully electric motor car fleet.
Mark Schwartz, head of Pira’s scenario planning group, said “in a scenario where EVs approach 40 per cent of the on-road vehicles in the world by 2040, compared to our reference case of 20 per cent, global oil demand would essentially plateau in the early 2030s”.
Oil demand, Pira argues, would be 10.8m barrels a day lower by 2040, removing the equivalent of more than 10 per cent of global consumption — a move it forecasts would cut crude prices by as much as $20 a barrel.
Wood Mackenzie, based in Edinburgh, said recent comments by Chinese officials “reinforce the government’s ambition to promote EV growth” that already targets 20 per cent of new car sales being electric by 2025.
If this rate were raised to 50 per cent by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said, as part of a phase out of conventional engines by 2035, almost 2m barrels of Chinese fuel demand would be “at risk”.
This would require China to do much more at the policy level to support EV sales, however, as it plans to cut direct subsidies for such cars by 2020.
“As government subsidies still play an important role in supporting EV sales, we believe the market response will lag five to 10 years behind any government target without further policies to fill the gap,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said.
“Given the lack of clarity . . . about the timeline and the definition of cars being targeted, the viability of any ban on combustion-engine cars remains to be seen.”
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