A 2015 picture shows the measuring pipe of a machine for exhaust fume analysis attached to a Volkswagen Golf 2.0 TDI in a German workshop © EPA
Sales of diesel cars in western Europe will fall below 50 per cent this year, according to a leading forecasting group, as the consumer reaction to the Volkswagen emissions scandal pushes the fuel’s market share to its lowest level in seven years.
Based on sales figures from 17 countries in Europe for the first nine months of the year, LMC Automotive predicts that diesel’s share of the market will drop 2.6 per cent to 49.3 per cent this year, its lowest level since 2009 and the fastest rate of decline in almost a decade.
The forecast is one of the clearest indications yet that diesel is suffering a consumer backlash in the wake of the VW affair, which saw the German carmaker admit that 11m diesel vehicles worldwide were fitted with cheating software to mask emissions of poisonous nitrogen oxides when in official laboratory tests.
Aside from 2009, sales have exceeded 50 per cent since 2005 — meaning that 2016 is on track to be the lowest figure for a decade.
The VW scandal sparked global investigations that also raised questions over the emissions of diesel cars by rival brands including Renault, Opel, Fiat and Mercedes-Benz, and pushed the harmful effects of poisonous nitrogen oxide emissions to the forefront of the public’s mind.
LMC’s report for September said: “It looks like 2016 will turn out as we expected; the first time for many years that diesel share will account for less than one-half of all car sales in the region.”
Diesel sales in western Europe have been falling since 2011, when they peaked at 55.7 per cent, according to LMC figures.
Between 2011 and 2015 diesel’s share of the market declined at an average of 0.95 per cent a year.
This year, however, it is expected to fall 2.6 per cent.
Al Bedwell, global power-train director at LMC, said: “We won’t know for a few more years whether this is the tipping point. But it would be naive to say that it [the VW scandal] has had no impact at all.”
Sales of diesel are expected to keep declining in the future, as increasingly stringent emissions NOx make diesel engines too expensive to use in smaller vehicles.
He added: “There will be people who [now] think that diesel is not the fuel for them because it is polluting.
“But people are often more swayed by what it means for their pocket.”
There will be people who [now] think that diesel is not the fuel for them because it is polluting. But people are often more swayed by what it means for their pocket
Diesel cars have taken off in Europe because carmakers see them as an effective way of reducing CO2 emissions to meet clean air regulations. They have also been popular with consumers, who benefit from its higher fuel economy than petrol and often cheaper road taxes.
In other parts of the world, such as the US, where regulation of NOx is tighter and petrol costs are lower, appetite for diesel has been far more subdued.
During 2009, diesel’s market share in western Europe fell to 45.8 per cent because of scrappage schemes being introduced by governments following the financial crisis, according to LMC.
These promoted the sales of lower-cost, smaller vehicles, which tend to be petrol.
Aside from 2009, sales have exceeded 50 per cent since 2005 — meaning that 2016 is on track to be the lowest figure for a decade.
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